Performance of a Lake Erie hypoxia forecast model in 2018

Session: Oxygen Cycling and Hypoxia: Processes, Impacts, and Management

Mark Rowe, NOAA GLERL, mark.rowe@noaa.gov
Eric Anderson, NOAA/GLERL, eric.j.anderson@noaa.gov
Gregory Lang, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Gregory.Lang@noaa.gov
Steve Ruberg, NOAA - GLERL, steve.ruberg@noaa.gov
Scott Moegling, Cleveland Water Department, Scott_Moegling@clevelandwater.com
Dmitry Beletsky, CIGLR, SEAS, University of Michigan, beletsky@umich.edu
Thomas Johengen, CILER, University of Michigan, johengen@umich.edu
Craig Stow, NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, craig.stow@noaa.gov

Abstract

The goal of our five-year project is to develop a hypoxia forecast model that can serve public water systems in Lake Erie, and may be suitable for operational use at NOAA. In 2017 and 2018, we ran a hypoxia forecast model that generated a daily nowcast and forecast of three-dimensional fields of dissolved oxygen (DO) in Lake Erie. The DO model was developed using the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model’s General Ecological Module, and the hydrodynamic component was similar to NOAA’s Lake Erie Operational Forecast System. Four upwelling events occurred in July-September, 2018 that caused onset of hypoxic conditions at three or more drinking water intakes along the Ohio coast of Lake Erie. These events were observed with real-time DO sensors (GLOS and LimnoTech) and with a DO sensor mooring array we deployed at coastal and offshore locations throughout the central basin. Advance notice of these events was provided to drinking water plants through the NOAA GLERL website and by email communication. The model displayed limited skill in some characteristics, for example shallow-biased mixed layer depth. An assessment of model skill, suitability for the application, and future directions will be presented.